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发布时间:2021-05-25 06:52
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本文摘要:Many years ago it became obvious to some of us that online retail would continue to grow at a much faster pace than brick and mortar stores. This appeared to be less obvious to traditional retailers until more recently. In 2001, I suggeste


Many years ago it became obvious to some of us that online retail would continue to grow at a much faster pace than brick and mortar stores. This appeared to be less obvious to traditional retailers until more recently. In 2001, I suggested to some colleagues that Wal-Mart WMT 0.29% should acquire Amazon to gain an edge in online retail (Amazon stock was about $5 a share at the time). This idea was scoffed at. I bought Amazon AMZN 0.07% stock but, clearly, didn’t maximize my execution as I sold it within 18 months for 3 times the return (it’s now $317). I’m guessing there were also some prescient investment bankers who received a similar response after suggesting that Wal-Mart buy Amazon. Who knows what the world would be like today had that occurred, as Amazon could easily have been derailed under Wal-Mart management.多年前,一些有识之士就相信,电商的增长速度将比实体店更快。在传统零售商显然,这一点并没那么显而易见——以后最近。2001年,我曾对一些同事回应,沃尔玛公司(Wal-Mart)应当并购亚马逊公司(Amazon),以取得在线零售的优势(当时亚马逊的股价大约为5美元)。


如果当时这个建议成真为,就不告诉今天的世界不会是什么模样,因为沃尔玛治下的亚马逊是很更容易出轨的。Now, traditional retailers are under extraordinary pressure as online has matured and is expected to exceed $300 billion in U.S. sales in 2014. As online retail has claimed a larger and larger share of the overall retail business, it has sucked the air out of brick and mortar stores, and offline growth has come to a virtual standstill. With this emergence, many traditional players have finally seen the light. Wal-Mart has announced it will be increasing its online investments by a substantial amount in an effort to try to close the gap against Amazon. There has been much press about the acceleration in Wal-Mart’s online sales, and as a result, there are some who will mistakenly look at the relative growth numbers of Amazon vs. Wal-Mart’s online store and start to believe Wal-Mart is closing the gap. This could not be further from the truth as it is deceptive to compare larger numbers to smaller ones.而如今,羽翼丰满的电商正在让传统零售商忍受极大压力。2014年,美国的在线零售额未来将会多达3000亿美元。



但这实质上与事实相去甚远,因为全然将大数字与较小数字比起是有一定欺骗性的。One reason to believe that Wal-Mart is catching up is because in the current fiscal year, the retailer is expected to grow online sales by 30% while is Amazon “only” expected to post a 20% gain, according to consensus Wall Street estimates. There are four problems with focusing on this number:坚信沃尔玛于是以迎头赶上的众多理由是,据华尔街的完全一致估计,沃尔玛本财年网店销售额预计快速增长30%,而亚马逊则“仅有”快速增长20%。

光看这一数字不存在如下四大问题:1. A portion of Wal-Mart’s growth is deceptive because it partly consists of shifting sales away from its physical stores to its online store.1.沃尔玛的增长额中有一部分极具欺骗性,因为它部分是由其实体店移往到网店的销售额包含的。2. Wal-Mart’s growth comes off of a much smaller number. In the chart below we look at the actual dollar growth of Amazon and Wal-Mart last year. While Wal-Mart is expected to increase online sales by a very respectable $3 billion, Amazon’s gain of $14.5 billion is nearly 5 times Wal-Mart’s dollar gain, and the gain alone will exceed Wal-Mart’s total online sales.2.沃尔玛的增长速度基于一个大得多的数字。

右图表明的是亚马逊和沃尔玛去年销售收入的实际增长额。尽管沃尔玛未来将会快速增长30亿美元(这已令人肃然起敬了),但亚马逊145亿美元的增长额是沃尔玛的将近5倍,仅有这一数字就远超强沃尔玛的整体在线销售额。3. The shift of overall retail toward online from physical stores has pressured Wal-Mart’s growth in its brick and mortar operations. Last year, Wal-Mart’s overall US revenue growth, including online sales, was 1.6% with same store sales actually declining slightly.3.零售业整体从实体店向网上移往对沃尔玛实体店的经营包含了很大压力。


去年沃尔玛在美国的总销售额增长率是1.6%,而同店销售额实质上是有所上升的。4. Amazon sales are recognized on a net basis. Since an increasing proportion of the sales are net dollars (at very high margins) received for selling other merchants products, the amount of sales that it controls far exceeds its reported revenue. They also report what amount of their services revenue is from the combination of Amazon Web Services credit card and advertising. If we assume that the remainder is their share of third-party merchant revenue (also known as Amazon Marketplace) (which is reported on a net basis) then we are able to calculate gross third-party merchant revenue by year. The conversion of that revenue to products sold by third-party merchants is a matter of projecting what Amazon’s average referral fee is for the marketplace. If we assume that Amazon receives 15%, on average, of total marketplace sales then we are able to calculate the total of all product revenue generated by Amazon. In 2013, this would be $125 billion rather than the $74 billion reported by them as total revenue. And this total would be up 28% rather than the reported growth of 22% for the company.4.亚马逊的销售额是按照净值证实的。由于这些销售额中日益增长的部分为销售其他商家产品取得的净收入(利润极高),因此该公司实际掌控的销售额近超强其所报收益。亚马逊还透露了该公司从亚马逊网络服务(Amazon Web Services)信用卡和广告中提供的服务收入。

如果我们假设剩下销售额是亚马逊从第三方商家——也被称作亚马逊市场(Amazon Marketplace)——收益中取得的分为(也是按净值证实),那就可以计算出来出有第三方商家每年的总收入。将这部分收益折算为第三方商家销售的商品,就不算出有亚马逊从这个市场中所获得的平均值点评酬劳。


Amazon has been secretive about its third-party retailer business but does report the breakout of total services revenue from direct product revenue.亚马逊仍然对其第三方零售业务讳莫如深,但却报告称之为,从必要产品收益中提供的总服务收入大幅度快速增长。Given the fact that Amazon is adding sales (in dollars) at 5 times the rate of Wal-Mart online, the question is whether it has enough inherent advantages to continue to significantly outpace Wal-Mart. The answer is yes. The obvious reasons include: a superior online brand, a multiple of customers that are regulars, more knowledge of how to use data, etc .. While these are not easy to replicate, if at all, an even more important issue is whether Wal-Mart’s distribution network could rival Amazon’s?既然亚马逊销售额(以美元计)增长速度是沃尔玛电商的五倍,问题就在于它否有充足的内在优势之后大幅度领先沃尔玛。

答案是毫无疑问的。显而易见的理由有:卓越的电商品牌,大量的回头客,更加通晓数据应用于,等等。尽管这些因素都很难拷贝,但更加最重要的问题是,沃尔玛的销售网络否能比不上亚马逊的呢?Amazon currently has 125 active warehouses that serve end-customers around the world while Wal-Mart only has a handful. This may seem surprising for the world’s largest retailer but keep in mind that a distribution center for resupplying stores with inventory is a completely different animal than a warehouse for shipping directly to end customers. Recently, Wal-Mart has announced plans to build a 1.2 million square-foot warehouse in Indiana dedicated to e-commerce. Wal-Mart currently uses its 4,200 existing retail stores as a nexus for shipping to end customers. Approximately 20% of online orders are now shipped from a store. This strategy is likely much less efficient and could prove quite costly relative to Amazon warehouse that have been optimized solely for online orders.目前亚马逊有125个在用库房为全球终端用户服务,而沃尔玛却只有不多的几个。这或许有点让人惊讶,因为沃尔玛却是是全球仅次于的零售商。



比较亚马逊的库房而言,这种战略的效率有可能要较低得多,而且成本有可能要低得多。I’ve chosen to compare Amazon to Walmart, the retailer with the greatest capacity to compete with them. Others will be even harder pressed to hold off online retailers.本文我中选了亚马逊与沃尔玛展开对比,沃尔玛却是是最有实力和电商竞争的零售商。